Rotorua Real Estate Market Update – January 2025

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After navigating the challenges of 2023, where prices declined, and listings surged following a market peak, 2024 brought greater certainty and stability. While the statistics might not fully capture this shift, median sale prices were slightly lower, and sales volumes remained steady. Sellers enjoyed less volatility as property prices stabilised.
Contributing to this steadier environment were improved economic conditions, a more favourable outlook with a change in government, and declining interest rates, which collectively boosted market confidence.
While much of New Zealand followed typical patterns of a recovering market cycle – fewer property sales, declining house prices, increased listings, and buyers gaining a negotiation advantage – Rotorua stood out with a more balanced market.
Although prices in Rotorua did drop, the market maintained a stable supply-and-demand dynamic. Unlike many regions, Rotorua didn’t experience a flood of new listings, keeping stock levels steady and making the local market far more predictable compared to others.
One notable difference in Rotorua was the delayed Spring Surge. Traditionally starting in late August or early September, this surge didn’t occur until October in 2024.
That month, we saw 120 new properties hit the market in just one week, accounting for almost a quarter of all available listings at the time.
This late surge led to a slower October for sales but resulted in a busier November and December, wrapping up the year with strong activity.
We anticipate that 2025 will bring a more favourable environment for homeowners as we emerge from one of the most challenging phases of the real estate cycle. With interest rates easing and inflation under control, we expect increased confidence and a strengthening economy.
Homeowners will likely feel more secure about selling, with greater certainty around timeframes and expected sale prices. House prices are projected to experience moderate growth in 2025, maintaining a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold a distinct advantage.
In 2024, the most active market segments were first-home buyers and investors selling their properties, leading to a larger share of lower-priced homes being sold. However, in 2025, we anticipate a more balanced property mix, with increased activity from investors.
During tough economic times, we often see homeowners staying put, riding out the uncertainty until conditions stabilize. Factors like job security, price stability, and healthy business profit margins are critical to unlocking movement in the real estate market. Over the past two years, most sellers have acted out of necessity – due to life changes such as job relocations, children leaving home, or transitioning to retirement living. In 2025, we expect to see more people selling because they want to move, not because they have to.
This shift could lead to an increased number of properties on the market and higher turnover. Whether this trend takes off early in the year or later remains to be seen.
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