25 September 2026 Hielke Oppers

Is the market really that bad?

27 September 2026

Lets have a closer look. Like the rest of New Zealand, Rotorua experienced a sharp rise in house prices after covid followed by a slowdown. However, our local market has behaved differently in several important ways, which we will get into below.

Why is Rotorua different?

The number of Rotorua homes available for sale in 2026 has remained steady at approximately 450–550 properties.
This is very different from the situation 10–15 years ago, when there were enough properties available to meet more than two years of buyer demand – too much stock, not enough buyers. At that time, only around one in every 25 listed homes sold each month.
Today’s market is much more balanced. Buyers have a reasonable range of properties to choose from, but there is still enough demand for appropriately priced and well-presented homes to sell.

Rotorua’s underlying strengths
Rotorua’s population continues to grow, with the city attracting people from elsewhere in New Zealand and from different parts of the world. Tourism also remains an important part of the local economy, supported by Rotorua’s growing reputation as a mountain biking and spa destination.

What are we seeing locally?
Buyers are more cautious and take longer to make decisions. They are doing more research, feel less urgency to act immediately and are more willing to negotiate, particularly when they perceive properties are requiring maintenance or updating. With more choice available, presentation, pricing and effective marketing have become increasingly important.
Creating genuine competition, buyer interest and giving people a clear reason to act can make a significant difference.

What could happen next?
We expect the Rotorua market to remain reasonably steady while inflation and global events continue to affect interest rates. If international conditions become more stable and the New Zealand economy continues to improve, we expect the property market
to gradually strengthen through the remainder of 2026 and 2027. If geo-political condtions get worse, or our economy worsens for other reasons, we may remain in this relatively balanced market for another 18–24 months.

For homeowners wanting to devest

While this is not a “booming” market, this is a well-balanced market that works well for those looking to o¢ load properties. Timing is the key decision maker here. If you are happy to hang on to your property for another 3-5 years, you could enjoy good capital gains.
However, if you want to sell within the next 12-18 months, now is as good as any time. The only variable within this timeframe are investment properties that are only attractive to investors – with elections around the corner, it could be beneficial to wait and see what the results are, although this could be a double-edged sword.

For buyers

Current conditions offer buyers more choice, less pressure and prices that have adjusted from the market peak. Mortgage rates are also more manageable than they were recently.

For people planning to own their property for at least 3 years, the current market offers good buying opportunities.

My final recommendation

Real estate is always a hot topic in NZ and the press capitalise on this. There is a good and bad story in the media every other week. I often get asked how the real estate market is and more often than not, people think it is much worse than reality due to media stories, some houses sitting on the market for a long time, etc. We know it can sometimes be hard to know what it means for people’s individual situation so my recommendation to people who are considering a real estate move is always the same:
“Seek advice from the right people early before time constraints begin to influence your decisions”.

On that note, if you’d like to discuss your specific situation and get some info to help shape your future plans, feel free to get in touch. We appreciate that every property decision comes with unique considerations, whether your next move is six months or six years away.